This article may contain original research. (November 2010) |
Psephology (/sɪˈfɒlədʒi/; from Greek ψῆφος, psephos, 'pebble') is the study of elections and voting.[1] Psephology attempts to both forecast and explain election results. The term is more common in Britain and in those English-speaking communities that rely heavily on the British standard of the language.[citation needed]
Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) in the United Kingdom after R. B. McCallum, a friend of Hardie's, requested a word to describe the study of elections. Its first documented usage in writing appeared in 1952.[2]
Etymology
editThe term draws from the Greek word for pebble as the ancient Greeks used pebbles to vote. (Similarly, the word "ballot" is derived from the medieval French word "ballotte", meaning a small ball.[3])
Applications
editPsephology is a division of political science that deals with the examination as well as the statistical analysis of elections and polls. People who practise psephology are called psephologists.
A few of the major tools that are used by a psephologist are historical precinct voting data, campaign finance information, and other related data. Public opinion polls also play an important role in psephology. Psephology also has various applications specifically in analysing the results of election returns for current indicators, as opposed to predictive purposes. For instance, the Gallagher Index measures the amount of proportional representation in an election.
Degrees in psephology are not offered (instead, a psephologist might have a degree in political science and/or statistics). Knowledge of demographics, statistical analysis and politics (especially electoral systems and voting behaviour) are prerequisites for becoming a psephologist.
Notable psephologists
editNotable psephologists include:
- David Andrews, who since 1973 has led the Canadian network CTV's analysis and "calling" of dozens of federal and elections and referendums
- Michael Barone, who has co-authored The Almanac of American Politics biennially since 1972
- Kevin Bonham, Tasmanian and Australian election analyst.[4]
- John Bowman
- David Butler and Robert McKenzie, who co-developed the swingometer
- Robert Chapman
- Nate Cohn
- Charlie Cook, publisher of The Cook Political Report
- F. W. S. Craig
- John Curtice, who has a strong track record of forecasting UK elections
- Vinod Dua Indian psephologist
- Harry Enten
- Thomas Ferguson, for his Investment theory of party competition
- Michael Gallagher who devised the Gallagher index
- Curtis Gans, author of Voter Turnout in the United States, 1788–2009[5]
- Luis Eduardo González
- Antony Green, election analyst for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation since 1991[6]
- Éric Grenier at thewrit.ca
- Pradeep Gupta, chairman of Axis My India
- Rajeeva Karandikar
- Peter Kellner
- Anthony King
- Steve Kornacki
- Allan Lichtman, professor and creator of The Keys to the White House
- Frank Luntz received the first ever doctorate in campaign technology from Trinity College, Oxford[7][8] and won the Washington Post Crystal Ball award for most accurate polling[9]
- Malcolm Mackerras (who devised the Mackerras pendulum)
- Robert McKenzie
- G. Elliott Morris
- Helmut Norpoth
- Samuel L. Popkin
- Victor Prescott, who preceded Antony Green as election analyst for the ABC
- V.C. Sekhar, an Indian academic
- Colin Rallings
- Jon Ralston
- Mahesh Rangarajan
- Ken Ritchie
- Prannoy Roy
- Larry Sabato
- Matthew Shugart
- Nate Silver, creator of the website FiveThirtyEight tracking U.S. voting trends
- Matt Singh
- Peter Snow
- Michael Steed
- Andrew S. Tanenbaum and Christopher Bates, who together write the daily electoral-vote.com website, which tracks polling for US presidential and congressional elections
- Michael Thrasher
- Sean Trende
- Dave Wasserman
- Noel Whelan, Irish politician and psephologist
- Yogendra Yadav, Indian politician and psephologist
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ Lansford, Tom (2011). Kurian, George Thomas (ed.). The Encyclopedia of Political Science. Vol. 1–5. CQ Press. p. 1377. ISBN 978-1-933116-44-0.
- ^ "Chapter 15: British Psephology 1945–2001: Reflections on the Nuffield Election Histories", David Butler, Still More Adventures With Britannia: Personalities, Politics and Culture in Britain. William Roger Louis (Ed.), Harry Ranson Humanities Research Centre, University of Texas, 2003
- ^ Stephan, Annelisa (November 6, 2012). "Voting with the Ancient Greeks". The Iris.
- ^ Langenberg, Adam (5 May 2025). "One Nation's Lee Hanson fights with Jacqui Lambie for Senate spot in Tasmania". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 8 March 2026.
- ^ Gans, Curtis (2010). Voter Turnout in the United States, 1788–2009. CQ Press. ISBN 978-1604265958.
- ^ Green, Antony (16 January 2024). "Election Blog". ABC.
- ^ "People Who Went to Penn: Frank Luntz". Retrieved July 31, 2016.
- ^ Luntz, Frank I. "Candidates, Consultants, and Modern Campaign Technology". solo.bodleian.ox.ac.uk. Retrieved 2021-06-13.
- ^ "Frank Luntz".
External links
edit
- ACE Project – Information resource for electoral design and administration. Includes comparative data on elections and electoral systems
- International IDEA – International Organisation providing (amongst other things) statistical analysis of elections and electoral systems
- 'Psephos' Dr. Adam Carr's Elections Archive
