Morphological analysis or general morphological analysis is a method for exploring possible solutions to a multi-dimensional, non-quantified complex problem. It was developed by Swiss astronomer Fritz Zwicky.[1] General morphology has found use in fields including engineering design, technological forecasting, organizational development and policy analysis.[2]
Overview
editGeneral morphology was developed by Fritz Zwicky, the Bulgarian-born, Swiss-national astrophysicist based at the California Institute of Technology. Among others, Zwicky applied morphological analysis to astronomical studies and jet and rocket propulsion systems. As a problem-structuring and problem-solving technique, morphological analysis was designed for multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problems where causal modelling and simulation do not function well, or at all.
Zwicky developed this approach to address seemingly non-reducible complexity: using the technique of cross-consistency assessment (CCA),[1] the system allows for reduction by identifying the possible solutions that actually exist, eliminating the illogical solution combinations in a grid box (sometimes called a morphological box) rather than reducing the number of variables involved.[3]
.png "A morphological box for bread with six categories arranged in rows: Flour, Leavening, Shape, Crust, Additions, and Baking. Each row contains 4 options with selected items highlighted in green or blue boxes. Selected combinations appear to create two bread types shown at the bottom: For Olive Ciabatta (shown with green highlights): White flour, Yeast leavening, Flat shape, Chewy crust, Olives as additions, and Oven baking method. For Baguette (shown with blue highlights): White flour, Yeast leavening, Loaf shape, Crispy crust, Plain (no additions), and Steam baking method.")
Decomposition versus morphological analysis
editProblems that involve many governing factors, where most of them cannot be expressed numerically can be well suited for morphological analysis.
The conventional approach is to break a complex system into parts, isolate the parts (dropping the 'trivial' elements) whose contributions are critical to the output and solve the simplified system for desired scenarios. The disadvantage of this method is that many real-world phenomena do not have obviously trivial elements and cannot be simplified.
Morphological analysis works backwards from the output towards the system internals without a simplification step.[4] The system's interactions are fully accounted for in the analysis.
References in fiction
editRobert A. Heinlein has his characters use a "Zwicky box" in Time Enough for Love, to figure out what's available to break the ennui of his 2000-year-old character.
David Brin used "Zwicky Choice Boxes" in Sundiver as a means to help solve a murder mystery.
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ a b Ritchey, T. (1998). General Morphological Analysis: A general method for non-quantified modeling Archived 2010-03-24 at the Wayback Machine.
- ^ Álvarez, A. & Ritchey, T. (2015). "Applications of General Morphological Analysis: From Engineering Design to Policy Analysis", Acta Morphologica Generalis, Vol.4 No.1. Archived 2016-05-13 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Ritchey, T (July 2006). "Problem structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis". Journal of the Operational Research Society. 57 (7): 792–801. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602177. ISSN 0160-5682. S2CID 19792496.
- ^ Modelling Complex Socio-Technical Systems Using Morphological Analysis (Ritchey 2003-06)[1] Archived 2007-09-29 at the Wayback Machine
Further reading
edit- Duczynski, G.A. (2016). "Morphological analysis as an aid to organisational design and transformation". Futures. 86: 36–43. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2016.08.001.
- Duczynski, Guy (October 2004). "Systems approaches to economic development for indigenous people: a case study of the Noongar Aboriginals of Australia". Futures. 36 (8): 869–888. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2004.01.001. ISSN 0016-3287.
- Duczynski, Guy (January 2018). "Investigating traffic congestion: Targeting technological and social interdependencies through general morphological analysis". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 126: 161–167. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.019. ISSN 0040-1625.
- Duczynski, G.A. (2000). "A Practitioner's Experience of Using Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) to Craft Futures" (PDF). Futures Research Quarterly. 16 (3).
- Duczynski, G.A.; Jablonski, J.; Huddleston, V (February 2015). "Sustainability of the Afghan Security Forces: A Wicked Problem". globalecco.org. Counter Terrorism Exchange. Retrieved 2019-05-05.
- Duczynski, Guy; dov Bachmann, Sascha; Smith, Matthew; Knight, Charles (August 2023). "Operational and Strategic Progress in Ukraine: Identifying the Condition Changes". Naval Post-Graduate School, Insights, Monterrey. available at: ECCO Insights - Global ECCO - Naval Postgraduate School
- Jones, J. C. (July 1981). "Design methods and theories". Design Studies. 2 (3): 176. doi:10.1016/0142-694x(81)90074-0. ISSN 0142-694X.
- Levin, Mark Sh. (2014-09-06), "Modular Systems, Combinatorial Engineering Frameworks", Modular System Design and Evaluation, Decision Engineering, Springer International Publishing, pp. 1–10, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-09876-0_1, ISBN 9783319098753
- Ritchey, Tom (2011), "Modelling Complex Policy Issues with Morphological Analysis", Wicked Problems – Social Messes, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 31–37, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9_4, ISBN 9783642196522
- Shubik, M. (1969-12-05). "Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning. Robert U. Ayres. McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969. xviii + 238 pp., illus. $12.50". Science. 166 (3910): 1257–1258. doi:10.1126/science.166.3910.1257. ISSN 0036-8075.
- Wilson, Albert (1967), "Epilogue", New Methods of Thought and Procedure, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 333–338, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-87617-2_17, ISBN 9783642876196
- Zwicky, Fritz; Page, T. (1969-03-21). "Discovery, Invention, Research, through the Morphological Approach". Science. 163 (3873). New York: Macmillan: 1317–1318. doi:10.1126/science.163.3873.1317. ISSN 0036-8075.
